MEASURING AND ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD (2004-2024) USING THE (NARDL) MODEL

Abstract

The research aims to identify trends in the manufacturing industry and the unemployment rate in Iraq. And it also aims to measure the relationship between the manufacturing industry and the unemployment rate, in order to identify the extent to which the manufacturing industry contributed to addressing the unemployment issue in Iraq after 2004. The research problem is represented by the clear contradiction between the capabilities available to the manufacturing sector in Iraq and the reality of high unemployment rates. Despite Iraq's possession of raw material and financial resources, the manufacturing sector is still suffering from paralysis and stagnation, leading to the loss of its role as a key driver of workforce employment. The study assumes that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between the growth in manufacturing output and the unemployment rate in Iraq. This means that activating and revitalizing industrial investment and protecting local products will necessarily lead to the creation of sustainable job opportunities that curb the exacerbation of unemployment particularly among the youth. Macroeconomic indicators were used as evidence of the relationship variables, and the standard quantitative approach has been used to validate the research assumption. After conducting several attempts using the quantitative model, the research reached the validity of its hypothesis, and it recommended to adopt of an integrated industrial strategy that relies primarily on crude oil as a vital source of inputs for that industry.